We had a pretty decent full halo CME yesterday, which is going to lead to possibilities of good sightings on camera here in Maine.
This is what a written NOAA forecast looks like, which can be found below the UTC time and kP index chart. It generally leads to confusion, because people equate the dates with their own time zone.
Here’s NOAA’s Forecast:
Rationale: Periods of G2 (Moderate) storming are likely, with a chance
for G3 (Strong) storm periods, late on 01 Sep due to the anticipated
arrival of the 30 Aug asymmetric full halo CME. On 02 Sep, periods of G3
(Strong) storming are likely, with a chance for G4 (Severe) storm
periods, as CME influences persists.
The number one question we get on the Facebook group is: WHEN can I see the aurora. It’s not exactly easy to say exactly when, but, learning how to read the NOAA three day sometimes helps. Rarely does anything happen exactly when NOAA says it will, since “it’s space” and as the SWPC engineers say, it’s hard to predict what’s happening a million miles away, but it’s a good indication of best times to look.
In which case, this is a great time to delve into how to read Universal Time on the NOAA three day forecast, considering we have a strong possibility coming up. The caveat, of course, is that we are in the cheap seats at the parallel we live at, and the moon will be pretty bright.
But, let’s get to work. This is what the Three Day Forecast looks like, or at least the part we are mainly concerned with. If you follow along the left column, you’ll see numbers like this: 00-03 UT. That’s what time it will be when, if you follow across the three columns, the kP index is predicted to be at the levels corresponding with the date.
So, for example, the largest number of 6.67 (G3) lines up with 06-09 UT on September 02.
It can be difficult to know when that is, but, remember that 00 UT tomorrow is the same right now as 8 pm in Maine. So 00 UT September 2 in Space is going to be 8 pm September 1 in Maine.
00-03 UT September 02 = 8pm through 11pm September 1 Maine
03-06 UT September 02 = 11pm September 1 through 2 am September 2 Maine
06-09 UT September 02 = 2 am through 5 am September 2 Maine
09-12 UT September 02 = 5 am – 8 am September 2 Maine
00 UT = 8 PM
01 UT = 9 PM
02 UT = 10 PM
03 UT = 11 PM
04 UT = MIDNIGHT
05 UT = 1 AM
06 UT = 2 AM
07 UT = 3 AM
08 UT = 4 AM
09 UT = 5 AM
Hope this helps, and ask any questions you may have!!