Good evening and welcome to the MABW evening forecast. There is an active substorm, but, it doesn’t look like it’s going to go above yellow alert status, and it might fizzle out early.
Current conditions:
- Solar Wind Speed: 508 km/sec
- Solar Wind Magnetic Fields: Bt 7 nT, Bz 1 nT
I’ve been seeing Bz headed down to 0 and -1, so really not a whole lot going on just now. This could change.
The moon is at 81% until it sets, which is going to be at some time a couple hours after midnight, but, this is that wonderful moment in time when people do very strange things and we set the clock back an hour.
It’s very windy, and will be quite cold and a lot of moon. So it may not be a great Aurora night. But, as we all know, things can change.
There is a rather large geoeffective coronal hole facing us currently, which looks a bit like the Butterfly Blaster. but I think it’s been more than 28 days since the BB was around- there are two different ways to measure the relationship of the face of the sun to what we see, and at some point here, I will go into it. How often do we see the same coronal holes again? How do they change? How do we measure when they will be back, and whether they will change?
Brace yourself for an upcoming Science Moment about all that.
Hopefully everyone got lots of Halloween candy. We are a bit lacking here at the MABW, since the kiddo went to a sleepover and it seems that 12 boys can eat a lot of candy.
It’s also the beginning of hunting season. No, this shouldn’t be a problem when you’re out after dark. But yes, it sometimes is. For those of us just joining MABW this year, this is just one of my yearly updates. Sometimes you can be out in the middle of nowhere and come across someone jacklighting deer. Unfortunately, this activity can also sometimes involve adult refreshments, which is why I travel with my dog and the warden on speed dial when I’m out in the field at night this time of year. It’s just something to be aware of- if you’re new to aurora hunting or to being out at night in remote locations. Not an anti-hunting post by any means, just facing the reality of poaching and how to be safe in the event of encountering illegal hunting at night. I’d love to tell you it doesn’t happen, but, in my world, it’s a few times a year occurrence. Just something to be aware of, along with warm clothing, snacks, water, and a buddy system.
Thank you for being the best part of the night sky!