Forecast - Maine Aurora Borealis Watch

The NOAA Three-Day Forecast, in black with white letters, reflects kP predictions based on averaged data from 13 magnetometers around the world. However, these magnetometers only update every three hours. Given that, it’s easy to see why real time data coming off ACE/EPAM can sometimes conflict with kP forecasts. Here, we see that the kP […]

UTC 00:00, September 9, 2025

September 8, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 8:00 pm

Greetings and welcome to the almost-new universal day. I’m writing a little bit earlier because it’s getting darker earlier. It’s clear up in the county, according to NOAA anyhow, and a look at the Katahdin webcam reveals our patron mountain in all her glory and majesty beneath a blue raspberry sky. There is a rather […]

Coronal Hole Active 4-8 September

September 4, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 12:54 pm

Just when we thought the fun couldn’t get any funner! I will say, the moon is now going to be a definite deal breaker, at 89% full tonight, and moving on from there. However, I’m waiting for folks to mention that there’s a full lunar eclipse on the 7th. If you look at the sidebar […]

Victory Lap!

September 2, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 7:08 pm

After veering off last night around 1 am, the IMF from last night is large and in charge this evening, hence, the big purple block of data far to the right in the above graph. We should have clear skies tonight, and, if conditions hold, hopefully those who were unable to see anything in the […]

Impact, Early.

September 1, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 5:35 pm

Well, so much for everyone trying to figure out UT and setting alarms. Looks like the show has started. Just before 5 pm Maine time, I was either going to go clear out part of my barn or look at data. And then do the barn. I’m still here looking at data. Yes, this happens. […]

A Storm a-Brewing

August 31, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 12:19 pm

We had a pretty decent full halo CME yesterday, which is going to lead to possibilities of good sightings on camera here in Maine. This is what a written NOAA forecast looks like, which can be found below the UTC time and kP index chart. It generally leads to confusion, because people equate the dates […]

UTC 22:55, almost tomorrow. In Space.

August 29, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 6:56 pm

Well, at about 3 pm we had a good hit. bZ -5 nT. Aurora is absolutely viewable on camera at that level. But, it’s now not 3 pm. In fact, it can be none more 3 pm. I’m usually functioning in about three different time modalities, so- maybe it’s a moment to discuss Universal Time, […]

UTC 00:18 August 27, 2025

August 26, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 8:27 pm

Welcome to the new universal day! A minor substorm is underway, with readings fluctuating just on either side of the line between what is negative and what is positive- which, frustratingly, NOAA often denotes as -0. They don’t always. But it does happen, and if you read ACE data, coming through on the old DISCOVR […]

03:02 UTC August 26, 2025

August 25, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 11:03 pm

Most places are still in clouds. A minor substorm is underway, very weak activity possible over the next hour. Strongest portion of the storm was about a half hour ago. I was availing myself of a nap, it being cloudy. Current reading:

00:18 UTC August 25, 2025

August 24, 2025

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| MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

| 8:20 pm

Welcome to the New Universal Day, 00:08 UTC. Also “Z.” Or “Zulu” time. I don’t know if the military still calls it Zulu though. But, if you get the NOAA bulletin updates, they are in “Z” time. Which is exactly the same as UTC. There is a small substorm brewing, but it will probably not […]

TOP

Category: Forecast

A Good Moment to Compare/Contrast kP with Observed Conditions

UTC 00:00, September 9, 2025

Coronal Hole Active 4-8 September

Victory Lap!

Impact, Early.

A Storm a-Brewing

UTC 22:55, almost tomorrow. In Space.

UTC 00:18 August 27, 2025

03:02 UTC August 26, 2025

00:18 UTC August 25, 2025