Category: Forecast

November 11-12, 2025

 November 11, 2025 November 11, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   9:42 pm 9:42 pm

Current G4 storming, severe level. For those like me who are in very cloudy conditions- We may get another very strong burst in an hour, and the clouds may clear out at that point for a couple hours. We may get some serendipity. For those like me who are in very cloudy conditions- We may […]

Great conditions in space, not on earth

 November 6, 2025 November 6, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   2:17 am 2:17 am

Unfortunately, rain, clouds, and big moon are all on the agenda for Maine over the next few days. But, if you go to the SWPC website, this is what you will see. We haven’t had a big storm like this for a while, but, we probably won’t get to see much. Here’s the link to […]

November 2

 November 2, 2025 November 2, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:25 pm 7:25 pm

Good evening and welcome to the MABW weather desk. Current conditions are not great for aurora viewing, both due to poor alignment of the IMF and also the 90% moon. There is a smallish substorm in progress, but, with the moon, I don’t think we will have much chance. The main news is that we […]

November 1

 November 1, 2025 November 1, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   6:19 pm 6:19 pm

Good evening and welcome to the MABW evening forecast. There is an active substorm, but, it doesn’t look like it’s going to go above yellow alert status, and it might fizzle out early. Current conditions: I’ve been seeing Bz headed down to 0 and -1, so really not a whole lot going on just now. […]

Storm watch issued by NOAA

 October 14, 2025 October 14, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:52 pm 7:52 pm

Good evening and welcome to the official MABW forecast. The new universal day will be upon us in another 25 minutes, that wonderful time I used to call DISCOVR rollover, when the satellite feed updated and All Was Known. Well, in that hour, anyway. What we do know is that it’s cloudy. We also know […]

I’m making myself write this post.

 October 13, 2025 October 13, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   8:27 pm 8:27 pm

Edited to correct the website address for weather.gov Good evening and welcome to a rather non-forecast, due to clouds. Last night was clouds most places, too, though activity was high. A couple people got lucky when a break in the clouds appeared up north, and conditions were right. Luck of the draw. I generally don’t […]

New Coronal Hole Geoeffective Sept 21

 September 18, 2025 September 18, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:01 pm 7:01 pm

Not much activity for tonight, and some clouds in many regions of Maine, but, starting on September 21, this particular coronal hole may give us some fireworks. Not as good as the Butterly Blaster this past weekend, but we may get to an Orange Alert level. Space Weather Class We had our first inaugural Space […]

Coronal hole facing Earth

 September 10, 2025 September 10, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:24 pm 7:24 pm

We could see enhanced solar wind plus or minus 3 days from this bad boy, but, so far, no major CMEs detected. This coronal hole is a bunch bigger than it was on the last rotation, and was responsible for many alerts the last time around, too. We might see some activity by Friday, and […]

A Good Moment to Compare/Contrast kP with Observed Conditions

 September 9, 2025 September 9, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   8:33 pm 8:33 pm

The NOAA Three-Day Forecast, in black with white letters, reflects kP predictions based on averaged data from 13 magnetometers around the world. However, these magnetometers only update every three hours. Given that, it’s easy to see why real time data coming off ACE/EPAM can sometimes conflict with kP forecasts. Here, we see that the kP […]

UTC 00:00, September 9, 2025

 September 8, 2025 September 8, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   8:00 pm 8:00 pm

Greetings and welcome to the almost-new universal day. I’m writing a little bit earlier because it’s getting darker earlier. It’s clear up in the county, according to NOAA anyhow, and a look at the Katahdin webcam reveals our patron mountain in all her glory and majesty beneath a blue raspberry sky. There is a rather […]