Howdy! The three most common questions we get on the Facebook page are:
- Will I be able to see the aurora tonight?
- What time is the aurora happening?
- Where can I see it?
These are all logical questions for us Earth Dwellers. With some margin of error, it’s entirely possible to predict weather under the dome of Earth’s atmosphere. Even though we gripe about local meteorologists, they do a decent job, despite so many factors in Earth’s atmosphere that make on-earth weather prediction tricky at times.
For example, who here lives in Belfast? You know you’re going to get a thunderstorm before the folks in Union, because the effect of the coastal mountain air/sea air/mountains catching the precipitation, whereas in a valley a bit further up there may be a shadow from the mountain that means the rain will pass over. This is all local knowledge that you learn over time, as you live in your location.
But, earth weather is not space weather. Space is not taking place under our lovely atmospheric dome. Space is vast, and timeless, seemingly infinite, and moves in dimensions we can barely imagine. And the Coronal Mass Ejections that can result in an aurora are happening 150,000 million kilometers away. That’s 93 million miles, or 1 AU. The surface of the sun is where this all begins.
Yes, we can predict auroras based on when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is detected by a satellite. We can tell whether it’s headed our way. And we can look at earth weather conditions like the moon, or cloud cover. We can educate people about light pollution, and try to find dark sky locations.
But, we still really don’t know what exactly is happening until one hour before showtime, based on how fast solar winds travel, placement of satellites, and trial and error of forecasting acumen.
We do what we can, but we also try to manage expectations, since this crazy aurora deal is a much wider swing than forecasting earth weather. One CME can eject 10 billion pounds of gas, and it hurtles through space anywhere between 500 – 1000 kilometers per second. And, it can just also sort of stall out somewhere or veer off, with thousands of us down here stomping our feet in the cold and keeping the hot cocoa going.
If you want to start learning about the science of space weather forecasting, NOAA has about the best in-depth scientific information, and they do have an experimental dashboard, on which you will find the also experimental aurora map showing the view line that some people have found, which is really cool! There is a Space Weather Enthusiasts Dashboard, and endless rabbit holes to travel down to enhance your learning. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, or SWPC (Pronounced Swip-C) can be found here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard
The Real Time Solar Wind Scatter Plot can be found here. Currently, it is NOT coming off the DISCOVR satellite, but rather off ACE/EPAM.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
The ACE/EPAM instrument feed can be found here
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
Another great forecasting resource is Glendale Skye Aurora. It comes in desktop or app form, but you can’t download it from the App Store or Google Play. However, it’s pretty easy to install if you follow the directions.
Andy Stables is the creator of this app, and does a great job. He hangs out on an offshore island in Scotland, which means the added benefit for us of those guys being under dark skies before we are. The photographs uploaded on the app are often very helpful in knowing when we might expect something in Maine.
Light Pollution: This is a very real factor, and can mess everything up in a big way super fast.
This is a very helpful Maine Dark Sky website, and often contains information about upcoming star parties, or things you can do to help preserve the Dark Sky.
https://www.go-astronomy.com/dark-sky-parks-stargazing-state.php?State=ME
However, many of us need to stay closer to home than voyaging to Acadia.
In which case, find a northerly facing location without being blocked by trees, or overwhelmed by lights. Make sure you can see the low north horizon. Sometimes this means going up on a hill, or sometimes people have luck at a lake. Before you go, learn how to do some night photography with whatever means you have. Apple iPhones have night mode and delayed exposure. If you can put your phone on a tripod (or balance it on the MABW Red Cup hack) your phone exposure will automatically increase to 30 seconds from the max of 10 seconds while holding it. Android phones have capabilites that are similar.
Chances are pretty good that if the activity is up, and you are patient, you’ll see something using your camera. We try to give some time frames of CME impact as best we can, though it can get pretty crazy. My first efforts ended up sending a major stampede up Cadillac Mountain, hundreds of people apparently waiting while Lady A dallied- and then arrived after everyone left. So I try to be a little circumspect about actual times, unless I see something really heating up and I know for sure, at which point, I send out a big holler.
It’s so amazing for me to have started this work with one member, and now see so many people in Maine so much more aware of the night sky. So start from where you are, and just be patient- look at the earth weather forecast- get some practice in finding a dark sky- and you will eventually have success.