The NOAA Three-Day Forecast, in black with white letters, reflects kP predictions based on averaged data from 13 magnetometers around the world. However, these magnetometers only update every three hours. Given that, it’s easy to see why real time data coming off ACE/EPAM can sometimes conflict with kP forecasts. Here, we see that the kP forecasted for this evening never goes above a 2.67. That’s not a G2 storm. Yet, here we are, with observed conditions (the box at the top in orange) showing G2 Moderate storming. The Space Weather overview at the left, under “Geomagnetic Activity,” also shows G2 level storming.
All of which will probably end in about half an hour, but, by the way, we are having a substorm. It’s enough for camera viewing, except that the 93% moon will probably kill the deal.