Category: Forecast

November 1

 November 1, 2025 November 1, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   6:19 pm 6:19 pm

Good evening and welcome to the MABW evening forecast. There is an active substorm, but, it doesn’t look like it’s going to go above yellow alert status, and it might fizzle out early. Current conditions: I’ve been seeing Bz headed down to 0 and -1, so really not a whole lot going on just now. […]

Storm watch issued by NOAA

 October 14, 2025 October 14, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:52 pm 7:52 pm

Good evening and welcome to the official MABW forecast. The new universal day will be upon us in another 25 minutes, that wonderful time I used to call DISCOVR rollover, when the satellite feed updated and All Was Known. Well, in that hour, anyway. What we do know is that it’s cloudy. We also know […]

I’m making myself write this post.

 October 13, 2025 October 13, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   8:27 pm 8:27 pm

Edited to correct the website address for weather.gov Good evening and welcome to a rather non-forecast, due to clouds. Last night was clouds most places, too, though activity was high. A couple people got lucky when a break in the clouds appeared up north, and conditions were right. Luck of the draw. I generally don’t […]

New Coronal Hole Geoeffective Sept 21

 September 18, 2025 September 18, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:01 pm 7:01 pm

Not much activity for tonight, and some clouds in many regions of Maine, but, starting on September 21, this particular coronal hole may give us some fireworks. Not as good as the Butterly Blaster this past weekend, but we may get to an Orange Alert level. Space Weather Class We had our first inaugural Space […]

Coronal hole facing Earth

 September 10, 2025 September 10, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:24 pm 7:24 pm

We could see enhanced solar wind plus or minus 3 days from this bad boy, but, so far, no major CMEs detected. This coronal hole is a bunch bigger than it was on the last rotation, and was responsible for many alerts the last time around, too. We might see some activity by Friday, and […]

A Good Moment to Compare/Contrast kP with Observed Conditions

 September 9, 2025 September 9, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   8:33 pm 8:33 pm

The NOAA Three-Day Forecast, in black with white letters, reflects kP predictions based on averaged data from 13 magnetometers around the world. However, these magnetometers only update every three hours. Given that, it’s easy to see why real time data coming off ACE/EPAM can sometimes conflict with kP forecasts. Here, we see that the kP […]

UTC 00:00, September 9, 2025

 September 8, 2025 September 8, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   8:00 pm 8:00 pm

Greetings and welcome to the almost-new universal day. I’m writing a little bit earlier because it’s getting darker earlier. It’s clear up in the county, according to NOAA anyhow, and a look at the Katahdin webcam reveals our patron mountain in all her glory and majesty beneath a blue raspberry sky. There is a rather […]

Coronal Hole Active 4-8 September

 September 4, 2025 September 4, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   12:54 pm 12:54 pm

Just when we thought the fun couldn’t get any funner! I will say, the moon is now going to be a definite deal breaker, at 89% full tonight, and moving on from there. However, I’m waiting for folks to mention that there’s a full lunar eclipse on the 7th. If you look at the sidebar […]

Victory Lap!

 September 2, 2025 September 2, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   7:08 pm 7:08 pm

After veering off last night around 1 am, the IMF from last night is large and in charge this evening, hence, the big purple block of data far to the right in the above graph. We should have clear skies tonight, and, if conditions hold, hopefully those who were unable to see anything in the […]

Impact, Early.

 September 1, 2025 September 1, 2025

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    |   MaineAuroraBorealisWatch MaineAuroraBorealisWatch

    |   5:35 pm 5:35 pm

Well, so much for everyone trying to figure out UT and setting alarms. Looks like the show has started. Just before 5 pm Maine time, I was either going to go clear out part of my barn or look at data. And then do the barn. I’m still here looking at data. Yes, this happens. […]